Date of Award
Markus Schneider, Ph.D.
China, Data, GDP, Gross domestic product, Growth, Reliability
China's rapid economic growth over the past three decades has drawn attention from all over the world. The sources and reliability of the official statistics behind the tremendous growth have been the subject of heated debate among economists. This paper contributes to this data reliability debate by analyzing on the GDP statistics of China and seeks to establish whether or not the official data are valid.
This study begins with a review of the prominent research on the topic. The majority of these studies, reviewed in chapter two, point to a series of inherent contradictions in the official figures, which casts doubt upon the reliability of the data. This chapter also presents a discussion of the methodologies other researchers have used, and identifies the ones appropriate for this particular paper. Chapter Three, reuses the approaches identified in the previous chapter but employs new data and finds that some approaches verify the official statics, while other approaches refute the official statistics. The paper then extends one of the identified methodologies, conducting an empirical analysis on the cointegration relationship between GDP and TEC (total energy consumption) by using the Engle-Granger Augmented Dicky-Fuller Test (EG-ADF test). Based on this, the final chapter concludes with the observation that even though a certain level of fabrication exists, the quality of the official data has been significantly improved. At last, the paper also addresses a few possible reasons for the obtained results, and suggests implications of improving the data reliability.
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Yu, Lili, "The Reliability of Chinese Economic Statistics" (2014). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 727.
Received from ProQuest