Publication Date
5-2023
Document Type
Article
Organizational Units
Josef Korbel School of International Studies, Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures
Keywords
Forecasts, Integrated assessment models, Shared socioeconomic pathways, Conflict, Poverty, Sustainable development goals
Abstract
Intrastate conflict generally undermines human development but its effect on global poverty across different income thresholds remains poorly understood. This paper analyzes how many people will live in poverty due to intrastate civil conflict in 2030, 2050, and 2070 using the International Futures model and shared socioeconomic pathways, forecasting 12 scenarios for 179 countries. A baseline conflict scenario leads to an additional 148.2 million (range: 50.7 to 186.0 million) people living in extreme poverty (Sustainable Development Goal.
Copyright Statement / License for Reuse
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 International License.
Publication Statement
This article was originally published as:
Moyer, J. D. (2023). Blessed are the peacemakers: The future burden of intrastate conflict on poverty. World Development, 165, 106188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106188
Rights Holder
Jonathan D. Moyer
Provenance
Received from author
File Format
application/pdf
Language
English (eng)
Extent
35 pgs
File Size
2.3 MB
Publication Title
World Development
Volume
165
First Page
1
Last Page
35
Recommended Citation
Moyer, Jonathan D., "Blessed Are the Peacemakers: The Future Burden of Intrastate Conflict on Poverty" (2023). Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures: Faculty Scholarship. 1.
https://digitalcommons.du.edu/pardee_fac/1
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106188
DOI Link
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106188
Included in
Income Distribution Commons, International and Area Studies Commons, International Economics Commons, Peace and Conflict Studies Commons