Date of Award

1-1-2008

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

M.A.

Department

Economics

First Advisor

Tracy Mott, Ph.D.

Second Advisor

Robert Urquhart

Third Advisor

Kathy Freeman

Fourth Advisor

Susan Schulten

Keywords

Conference board, Economic indicators, Leading index, Leading indicators, Philip Klein, Victor Zarnowtiz

Abstract

The following work is a look into the history and value of the composite index of leading indicators. Current and past business cycle theory is explored to demonstrate the relevance of a tool like the composite index of leading indicators. An argument that business cycle theory has not proven sufficient in explaining changes in the direction of the economy is made. The notion that the composite leading index has a proven track record of successfully predicting movements in the economy is reviewed. The conclusion becomes the idea that since theory and its forecasting counterparts have not proven a reliable method to predict movements in the economy, a tool like the composite leading index is valuable.

Publication Statement

Copyright is held by the author. User is responsible for all copyright compliance.

Provenance

Received from ProQuest

Rights holder

Seth Morgan

File size

62 p.

File format

application/pdf

Language

en

Discipline

Economic theory, Economics, Economics, Commerce-Business

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