Oil Prices and Interstate Conflict

Publication Date

10-19-2015

Document Type

Article

Organizational Units

Josef Korbel School of International Studies, International Studies

Keywords

Conflict, Diplomacy, Iran, Oil, Resource curse, Russia, Venezuela

Abstract

Anecdotal evidence suggests that high oil prices embolden oil-rich states to behave more aggressively. This article contends that arguments linking oil-exporter status to interstate conflict are implicitly price contingent, and tests this via a reanalysis of works by Colgan and Weeks. It finds a contingent effect of oil prices on interstate disputes, with high oil prices associated with significant increases in dispute behavior in petrostates, for which oil exports constitute more than 10% of GDP, while having a null effect in non-petrostates. Directed-dyadic tests indicate that this is due to petrostates initiating disputes, rather than becoming more attractive targets for conquest or coercion.

Publication Statement

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